Nurnberg vs SG Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-09 · 13:30 CET
DWWWD
WLWLLThe score model made a Nurnberg win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nurnberg 1.62 – 1.42 SG Dynamo Dresden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 41.8% | 42.3% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| SG Dynamo Dresden win | 33.0% | 30.8% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 55.4% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 34.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 59.7% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.7% | 37.6% | +7.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nurnberg 42.2 / SG Dynamo Dresden 22.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.