Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-08 · 13:00 CET
LWDLD
WLWLDThe score model made a Karlsruher SC win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.91 – 1.57 Arminia Bielefeld.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruher SC win | 45.3% | 35.6% | +9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Arminia Bielefeld win | 31.7% | 38.9% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | 60.7% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.9% | 39.8% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | 63.7% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 41.3% | +0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Karlsruher SC 42.3 / Arminia Bielefeld 25.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.