Bochum vs Hertha Berlin
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-07 · 20:30 CET
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LWWWWThe score model made a Bochum win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bochum 1.57 – 1.22 Hertha Berlin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 44.7% | 40.2% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Hertha Berlin win | 29.1% | 32.5% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 55.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 34.5% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 59.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 37.4% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bochum 22.7 / Hertha Berlin 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.