Concarneau vs Fleury-Merogis
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
WDWDL
WWWDLThe score model makes a Fleury-Merogis win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Fleury-Merogis win — 39.7% vs 29.1% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Concarneau 1.23 – 1.43 Fleury-Merogis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concarneau win | 30.5% | 42.5% | -12.0% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 28.4% | +1.4% |
| Fleury-Merogis win | 39.7% | 29.1% | +10.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 48.0% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 28.6% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 52.3% | +3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 33.4% | -1.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Concarneau 39.1 / Fleury-Merogis 26.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Concarneau vs Fleury-Merogis in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.