Caen vs Versailles
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
LWLWD
DWWWWThe score model makes a Caen win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.8% vs 63.6% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Caen 1.50 – 1.27 Versailles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 40.7% | 39.2% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 26.8% | +2.3% |
| Versailles win | 30.3% | 34.0% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 56.5% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 36.4% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 59.8% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 39.0% | -5.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Caen 28 / Versailles 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Caen vs Versailles in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.