Versailles vs Valenciennes
National, France · 2026-10-03 · 20:45 CET
LWDWW
LLLWLThe score model made a Versailles win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Versailles 1.64 – 1.08 Valenciennes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versailles win | 48.6% | 48.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.0% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Valenciennes win | 23.3% | 25.2% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 52.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 32.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 55.2% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 36.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Versailles 44.6 / Valenciennes 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.