Villefranche vs Versailles
National, France · 2026-09-26 · 20:45 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a Versailles win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villefranche 1.15 – 1.59 Versailles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villefranche win | 25.9% | 28.7% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Versailles win | 45.8% | 43.7% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 50.8% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 30.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 34.8% | +1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Villefranche 44.1 / Versailles 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Villefranche vs Versailles in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.