St Etienne vs Laval
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
DWWWL
DLDLWThe score model makes a St Etienne win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.4% vs 62.0% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Etienne 2.18 – 0.74 Laval.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Etienne win | 70.3% | 69.8% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 18.5% | 18.3% | +0.2% |
| Laval win | 11.2% | 11.9% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 59.4% | -3.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 38.0% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 49.7% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 39.4% | -1.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: St Etienne 36.5 / Laval 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St Etienne vs Laval in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.