Pau FC vs Nantes
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
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WDLLDThe score model makes a Pau FC win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Pau FC win — 46.9% vs 31.2% implied (+15.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pau FC 1.64 – 1.22 Nantes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 46.9% | 31.2% | +15.7% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.7% | -3.1% |
| Nantes win | 28.4% | 41.1% | -12.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 50.0% | +4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 29.7% | +2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 55.3% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | 33.7% | +2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pau FC 46 / Nantes 10.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pau FC vs Nantes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.