Montpellier vs Metz
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
DWWWW
DLWDLThe score model makes a Montpellier win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.7% vs 64.4% implied (+10.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montpellier 1.49 – 1.05 Metz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 47.3% | 45.7% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 29.0% | -2.8% |
| Metz win | 26.5% | 25.3% | +1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 55.4% | -8.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 35.6% | -10.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 59.6% | -8.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 37.4% | -7.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Montpellier 29.1 / Metz 21.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Montpellier vs Metz in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.