Dunkerque vs Guingamp
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
LLWDL
LLLWWThe score model makes a Guingamp win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.5% vs 62.3% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.40 – 1.44 Guingamp.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 36.4% | 35.8% | +0.6% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.8% | -0.5% |
| Guingamp win | 38.3% | 38.4% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 58.2% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 37.7% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 61.6% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 39.1% | -2.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Dunkerque 44.1 / Guingamp 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dunkerque vs Guingamp in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.