Clermont vs Rodez
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
DLDLD
LLLWWThe score model makes a Rodez win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.3% vs 67.4% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Clermont 1.23 – 1.43 Rodez.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 32.2% | 30.4% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.5% | -1.4% |
| Rodez win | 41.6% | 42.1% | -0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 53.2% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 32.6% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 57.3% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 36.5% | -3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Clermont 38.7 / Rodez 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Clermont vs Rodez in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.