Boulogne vs Annecy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
LDWDL
LWLWLThe score model makes a Boulogne win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Annecy win — 34.9% vs 31.1% implied (+3.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boulogne 1.27 – 1.21 Annecy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boulogne win | 37.7% | 37.5% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 31.3% | -4.0% |
| Annecy win | 34.9% | 31.1% | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 41.8% | +3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 22.7% | +1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 49.7% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 29.3% | +0.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Boulogne 29.1 / Annecy 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Boulogne vs Annecy in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.