Metz vs St Etienne
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-19 · 20:00 CET
LDLWD
LDWWWThe score model made a Metz win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Metz 1.50 – 1.29 St Etienne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.1% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| St Etienne win | 32.5% | 48.0% | -15.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 55.9% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 34.8% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 58.3% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 38.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Metz 18.6 / St Etienne 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Metz vs St Etienne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.