Guingamp vs Red Star
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-19 · 14:00 CET
WLLLW
WWWWLThe score model made a Guingamp win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Guingamp 1.40 – 1.20 Red Star.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 41.2% | 39.3% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Red Star win | 32.1% | 33.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 53.8% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 33.4% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 57.9% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 37.1% | -2.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Guingamp 45 / Red Star 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Guingamp vs Red Star in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.