Rodez vs Nancy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
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LWWWWThe score model made a Rodez win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:4 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rodez 1.74 – 1.00 Nancy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez win | 54.6% | 39.7% | +14.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 27.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Nancy win | 21.6% | 32.4% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 51.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 31.1% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 57.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 35.5% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rodez 45.9 / Nancy 26.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rodez vs Nancy in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.