Pau FC vs Dunkerque
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
LWWWW
WLLWDThe score model made a Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pau FC 1.48 – 1.70 Dunkerque.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 33.6% | 41.2% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 27.9% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Dunkerque win | 42.9% | 30.8% | +12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 52.1% | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 31.6% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 57.0% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 36.0% | +6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pau FC 45.1 / Dunkerque 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pau FC vs Dunkerque in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.