Grenoble vs Clermont
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
WDLLL
DDLDLThe score model made a Grenoble win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grenoble 1.15 – 0.87 Clermont.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grenoble win | 42.0% | 38.5% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 31.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Clermont win | 27.6% | 30.3% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.9% | 39.8% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.6% | 21.3% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% | 47.8% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 27.8% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grenoble 45 / Clermont 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grenoble vs Clermont in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.