Reims vs Annecy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-24 · 20:45 CET
DDWWD
WWLDWThe score model made a Reims win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Reims 1.52 – 1.08 Annecy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 47.4% | 51.2% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.0% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Annecy win | 26.9% | 22.7% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 50.7% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 29.6% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 53.1% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 34.1% | +3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Reims 23.6 / Annecy 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.