St Etienne vs Grenoble
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-22 · 20:00 CET
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LDLWLThe score model made a St Etienne win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 4:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Etienne 1.71 – 0.84 Grenoble.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Etienne win | 58.1% | 67.9% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 20.2% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Grenoble win | 18.1% | 11.9% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 53.8% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 32.8% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 46.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 37.0% | -8.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St Etienne 32.7 / Grenoble 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.