Pau FC vs Nancy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
LWLDD
DLWWLThe score model made a Pau FC win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pau FC 1.67 – 1.24 Nancy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 47.3% | 39.5% | +7.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 29.4% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Nancy win | 28.4% | 31.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 47.0% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 26.3% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 52.7% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 32.1% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pau FC 43.8 / Nancy 23.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.