Dunkerque vs Montpellier
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
WDLLD
DWWDLThe score model made a Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.19 – 1.18 Montpellier.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 36.2% | 41.3% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.4% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Montpellier win | 35.7% | 31.3% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 53.0% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 32.3% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 57.4% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 36.3% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunkerque 40.9 / Montpellier 23.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.