Boulogne vs Red Star
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
DLDDD
WDDLWThe score model made a Red Star win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boulogne 1.01 – 1.20 Red Star.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boulogne win | 30.6% | 26.2% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.1% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Red Star win | 40.3% | 44.7% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 45.4% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 25.3% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 51.2% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 31.5% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boulogne 23.8 / Red Star 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.