St Etienne vs Clermont
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-14 · 20:45 CET
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DLDDDThe score model made a St Etienne win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Etienne 1.75 – 0.81 Clermont.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Etienne win | 59.6% | 65.6% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 20.7% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Clermont win | 17.0% | 13.7% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 56.2% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 34.8% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 50.7% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 38.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St Etienne 32.4 / Clermont 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.