Reims vs Dunkerque
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-14 · 20:45 CET
DDWWD
WDLLDThe score model made a Reims win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Reims 1.65 – 1.08 Dunkerque.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 50.6% | 51.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.1% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Dunkerque win | 24.7% | 22.5% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 51.3% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 30.3% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 53.5% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 35.0% | +5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Reims 23.1 / Dunkerque 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.