Nancy vs Montpellier
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-14 · 20:45 CET
DLWWL
DWWDLThe score model made a Montpellier win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nancy 0.87 – 1.30 Montpellier.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 24.9% | 34.9% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 28.3% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Montpellier win | 46.4% | 36.7% | +9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 48.0% | -11.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 27.6% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 53.9% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 33.1% | -9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nancy 23.1 / Montpellier 23.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.