Guingamp vs Boulogne
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-14 · 20:45 CET
LWLDD
DLDDDThe score model made a Guingamp win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Guingamp 1.52 – 0.96 Boulogne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 50.3% | 52.6% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Boulogne win | 23.6% | 20.5% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 45.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 25.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 48.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 31.9% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Guingamp 43.4 / Boulogne 23.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.