Grenoble vs Metz
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-14 · 20:45 CET
LDLWL
WDDDWThe score model made a Metz win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grenoble 0.99 – 1.54 Metz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grenoble win | 24.2% | 26.4% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 28.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Metz win | 50.0% | 45.2% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 45.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 24.9% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 50.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 31.3% | -8.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grenoble 43.4 / Metz 15.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.