Pau FC vs Annecy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-08 · 20:45 CET
LWLDD
WWLDWThe score model made an Annecy win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pau FC 1.43 – 1.67 Annecy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 32.9% | 35.1% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 28.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Annecy win | 43.4% | 36.5% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 50.8% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 30.6% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 55.9% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 34.8% | +6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pau FC 43 / Annecy 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.