Metz vs Guingamp
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-08 · 20:45 CET
WDDDW
LWLDDThe score model made a Metz win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Metz 1.96 – 1.00 Guingamp.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 59.7% | 46.1% | +13.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 27.4% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Guingamp win | 18.6% | 26.5% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 48.4% | +8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 28.1% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 52.7% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 33.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Metz 14.3 / Guingamp 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.