Dunkerque vs Grenoble
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-08 · 20:45 CET
WDLLD
LDLWLThe score model made a Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.39 – 1.00 Grenoble.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 45.8% | 47.3% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.3% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Grenoble win | 27.0% | 25.4% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 48.7% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 28.2% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 52.8% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 33.6% | -8.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunkerque 39.9 / Grenoble 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.