Clermont vs Reims
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-08 · 20:45 CET
DLDDD
DDWWDThe score model made a Reims win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Clermont 0.97 – 1.42 Reims.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 25.7% | 23.1% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.6% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Reims win | 47.3% | 49.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 45.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 25.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 49.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 31.6% | +4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Clermont 33.6 / Reims 22.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.