Auxerre vs Brest
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-20 · 15:00 CET
LWWLW
LLWDLThe score model made an Auxerre win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auxerre 1.41 – 1.30 Brest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 39.1% | 31.0% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Brest win | 33.8% | 41.6% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 54.3% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 33.7% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 58.6% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 36.5% | +3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auxerre 37.9 / Brest 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Auxerre vs Brest in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.