Lyon vs Rennes
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-19 · 20:45 CET
WDWLW
WWLWLThe score model made a Lyon win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lyon 1.81 – 1.38 Rennes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 47.0% | 43.5% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Rennes win | 28.9% | 30.9% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 61.4% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 41.0% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 64.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 42.1% | -2.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lyon 43.2 / Rennes 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lyon vs Rennes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.