Monaco vs Lens
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-18 · 20:45 CET
WDWDL
DLWWWThe score model made a Monaco win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Monaco 1.61 – 1.45 Lens.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 40.9% | 47.5% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Lens win | 33.9% | 26.7% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 58.8% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 38.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 61.4% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 40.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Monaco 43.3 / Lens 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Monaco vs Lens in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.