Nice vs Lorient
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-22 · 20:45 CET
DWDLD
WLDLWThe score model made a Nice win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nice 1.57 – 1.25 Lorient.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice win | 44.4% | 43.2% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.5% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Lorient win | 29.6% | 28.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 46.2% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 26.0% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 52.1% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 31.7% | +2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nice 43.5 / Lorient 30.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.