Lens vs Auxerre
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-22 · 17:15 CET
LWWLL
WWLLLThe score model made a Lens win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 5:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lens 1.71 – 0.82 Auxerre.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 57.9% | 63.7% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 21.0% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Auxerre win | 17.2% | 15.3% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 59.0% | -12.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 37.7% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 54.4% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 39.8% | -7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lens 41.8 / Auxerre 36.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.