Marseille vs Strasbourg
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made a Marseille win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 4:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marseille 1.97 – 1.38 Strasbourg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 50.8% | 54.5% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 23.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Strasbourg win | 26.3% | 22.1% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 61.4% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% | 40.6% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 61.1% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | 41.9% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Marseille 41.9 / Strasbourg 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.