Lens W vs Lyon W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
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WDWWWThe score model made a Lyon W win the most likely outcome at 89%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 77%). It finished 1:7 (HT 1:5) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lens W 0.57 – 3.49 Lyon W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens W win | 2.6% | 2.2% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 8.1% | 5.6% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Lyon W win | 89.4% | 92.3% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.0% | 83.2% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57.8% | 72.6% | -14.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 24.4% | +18.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 63.3% | -12.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lens W 18.9 / Lyon W 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lens W vs Lyon W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.