Fleury 91 W vs PSG W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-10-04 · 15:00 CET
DLDWL
LWWWWThe score model made a PSG W win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleury 91 W 0.91 – 1.62 PSG W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleury 91 W win | 20.7% | 11.8% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 20.3% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| PSG W win | 53.4% | 67.8% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.1% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 30.3% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 43.1% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 35.9% | -3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fleury 91 W 27.4 / PSG W 28.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.