Nantes W vs Montpellier W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-10-03 · 18:30 CET
LLDLD
LWLDDThe score model made a Nantes W win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nantes W 1.67 – 1.29 Montpellier W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes W win | 46.0% | 40.8% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 28.2% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Montpellier W win | 29.3% | 31.1% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | 50.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.5% | 30.9% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 55.4% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 35.2% | +8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nantes W 23.5 / Montpellier W 27.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.