Montpellier W vs Marseille W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-19 · 21:00 CET
LWLWL
LWLWWThe score model made a Montpellier W win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montpellier W 1.79 – 1.31 Marseille W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier W win | 48.6% | 28.5% | +20.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 27.1% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Marseille W win | 28.2% | 44.4% | -16.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 50.5% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 30.0% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 53.9% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 35.1% | +4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Montpellier W 27.3 / Marseille W 15.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.