Strasbourg W vs Paris FC W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
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WWLWLThe score model made a Paris FC W win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Strasbourg W 0.89 – 2.17 Paris FC W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg W win | 14.1% | 17.2% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.5% | 23.5% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Paris FC W win | 66.4% | 59.3% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 53.1% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 32.5% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 51.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 36.9% | +7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Strasbourg W 22.4 / Paris FC W 29 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.