JaPS vs Haka
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-14 · 17:30 CET
LDWLW
LLDWLThe score model made a Haka win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: JaPS 1.10 – 1.99 Haka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaPS win | 21.1% | 21.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 24.9% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Haka win | 58.4% | 53.3% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 55.2% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 34.9% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 56.0% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 37.8% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: JaPS 37.5 / Haka 15.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.