JaPS vs Haka
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-14 · 17:30 CET
LWWLW
WDWWWThe score model makes an Haka win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Haka win — 58.3% vs 52.9% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: JaPS 1.10 – 1.99 Haka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| JaPS win | 21.1% | 22.2% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 20.6% | 24.9% | -4.3% |
| Haka win | 58.3% | 52.9% | +5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 55.7% | +4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 35.9% | +1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 56.8% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 38.1% | +1.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: JaPS 37.7 / Haka 16 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.