Klubi 04 vs KTP
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-09 · 12:00
The score model makes an KTP win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Klubi 04 1.17 – 1.87 KTP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klubi 04 win | 23.8% | 20.0% | +3.8% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.0% | -0.9% |
| KTP win | 54.0% | 56.9% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 61.2% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 41.1% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 59.1% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 41.9% | -0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Klubi 04 28 / KTP 21.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.