SJK Akatemia vs PK-35
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
LLLDL
WWDWLThe score model made a PK-35 win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK Akatemia 0.88 – 1.33 PK-35.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK Akatemia win | 25.0% | 25.2% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| PK-35 win | 47.6% | 48.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 52.2% | -14.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.3% | 31.4% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 54.8% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.5% | 35.4% | -15.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK Akatemia 37.1 / PK-35 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.