KaPa vs Ekenas
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
LDDLW
LLDDLThe score model made an Ekenas win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KaPa 1.74 – 2.11 Ekenas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KaPa win | 32.7% | 33.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 26.6% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Ekenas win | 46.9% | 39.7% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.9% | 57.1% | +16.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.7% | 36.5% | +17.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 72.3% | 60.5% | +11.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.4% | 39.3% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KaPa 36.8 / Ekenas 30.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.