KaPa vs Ekenas
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-08 · 15:00
The score model makes an Ekenas win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 74%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KaPa 1.73 – 2.12 Ekenas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KaPa win | 32.3% | 34.1% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 20.5% | 27.2% | -6.7% |
| Ekenas win | 47.2% | 38.7% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.0% | 57.1% | +16.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.7% | 37.3% | +16.4% |
| Both teams to score | 72.3% | 60.8% | +11.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 39.3% | +6.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KaPa 37 / Ekenas 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.