JaPS vs Mikkeli
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-07 · 17:30 CET
LDWLW
LLWDWThe score model made a JaPS win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: JaPS 1.45 – 1.21 Mikkeli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaPS win | 42.9% | 40.8% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Mikkeli win | 31.7% | 31.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 54.3% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 34.0% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 58.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 36.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: JaPS 37.1 / Mikkeli 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.