JaPS vs Mikkeli
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-08-07 · 15:30
The score model makes a JaPS win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: JaPS 1.45 – 1.21 Mikkeli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| JaPS win | 42.9% | 43.4% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.8% | -1.4% |
| Mikkeli win | 31.7% | 29.8% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 56.2% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 35.8% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 59.6% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 38.2% | -7.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: JaPS 37.2 / Mikkeli 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.