TPS vs Ilves
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-19 · 14:00 CET
WDWDD
LWLLLThe score model made a TPS win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: TPS 1.50 – 1.20 Ilves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPS win | 44.0% | 36.8% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.0% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Ilves win | 30.0% | 37.2% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 57.4% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 36.0% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 59.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 38.7% | +0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: TPS 18.5 / Ilves 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open TPS vs Ilves in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.