AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-18 · 18:00 CET
LWLWW
WDWLWThe score model made an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 0.87 – 1.47 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 22.1% | 23.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Inter Turku win | 50.9% | 48.7% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 45.9% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 25.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 50.0% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 31.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 36.5 / Inter Turku 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AC Oulu vs Inter Turku in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.